Every year before the National Football League (NFL) season begins, betting experts predict how many wins a given team will have. As the season comes to a close, we look back and review who exceeded those expectations and who fell short. Most teams’ predictions were accurate, but some of the predictions were off and that’s the excitement of the game. Let’s look at the biggest overachievers and who failed to meet expectations.
This year the Denver Broncos, Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings exceeded their projected win totals. On the other hand, the Cleveland Browns, the New York Jets and the San Francisco 49ers massively failed their preseason hype.
The Overachievers:
The Denver Broncos were not expected to do much heading into the 2024 NFL season; their win total was set at Over/Under (O/U) 5.5. In 2023, the Broncos went 8-9 and to start 2024 they were starting rookie quarterback Bo Nix, returning a defense that ranked 27th and had no money left to sign free agents because they cut Russell Wilson the previous December. By Week 3, the prediction looked to be correct as the Broncos were 0-2 and heading into Tampa Bay to play the 2-0 Buccaneers. This game was the turning point for Denver as they won the game 26-7. After this win, Nix was able to show he is a strong quarterback, and the lackluster defense became a top-five unit. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II has looked like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and the emergence of pass rushers Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen have been the main factors in Denver’s defensive turnaround. Despite a late two-game losing streak, the Broncos smoked the Chiefs in Week 18 to clinch the American Football Conference’s (AFC) seventh seed and return to the postseason for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50 in 2015.
Many people were excited about the Washington Commanders’ future heading into the 2024 season, with new ownership, rookie quarterback (QB) Jayden Daniels and a new head coach, oddsmakers expected better 2024 for the Commanders with their win total being set at O/U 6.5. After a Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers, the Commanders won seven of their next eight games and Daniels looked like the surefire Rookie of the Year. Even after a few losses in the middle of the season, the Commanders finished strong to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020. The addition of Daniels propelled Washington into a top-five offensive unit and additions on defense like Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu had the defense go from worst in the league to an average unit which was enough to get them into the playoffs.
The 2024 Minnesota Vikings were supposed to have a rebuilding year with rookie QB J.J. McCarthy as oddsmakers predicted their O/U to be 6.5. Before the season even began, tragedy struck as fourth-round cornerback Khyree Jackson died in a car accident. To make matters worse, McCarthey tore his knee and was out for the season. The Vikings were left with Sam Darnold, a QB who many thought was a draft bust. Through the first five weeks, the Vikings were a perfect 5-0, and they rode this amazing start to an impressive 14-3 season. Darnold was a perfect fit in the Vikings’ system with star receivers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison; he looked like a top-five quarterback. Now, the Vikings are tasked with a decision on whether they should keep Darnold or let him go in free agency for McCarthy. The most underrated reason why the Vikings are so good is because their defense rose from middle-of-the-pack to a top spot in just one year.
The Underachievers:
There was a lot of optimism in Cleveland heading into the 2024 NFL season. Making the playoffs with backup QB Joe Flacco and going 11-6, the 2024 Browns were going to try to exceed that 2023 team with mostly the same roster and the return of starting QB Deshaun Watson, who was looking to return to his former glory he had with the Texans. Going into Week 1, the Browns O/U was set at 8.5 and immediately fans knew they were going to be nowhere close to the total, as they lost 33-17 to the Cowboys in a game where Watson looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Fast forward to Week 7, the Browns were 1-6 when Watson tore his Achilles and was out for the year. The Browns stumbled their way to a 3-14 record which was well under their projected total. Their offense, which was top 10 last year, was the worst in the NFL and their defense, which was top 15, became a bottom five unit. The Browns look to turn things around with the number two pick in the upcoming NFL draft.
Going into the 2024 NFL season, the expectations were sky-high for the New York Jets. In 2023, the Jets went 7-10 with backup QB Zach Wilson. Now in 2024, the Jets were getting back Aaron Rodgers, who tore his Achilles on the fourth play of his 2023 season. With talent like Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams and Breece Hall, and a top 12 defense in 2023, experts predicted the Jets O/U to be 9.5. The Jets started the season 2-1, then proceeded to lose nine out of their next 10 games with Rodgers looking worse than Wilson and the defense regressing into a below-average unit. During the season, the Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh and are now left with more questions than answers.
Coming off a Super Bowl loss and new contracts to star players Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams, many expected the 49ers to be one of, if not the best, teams in the NFL with experts predicting their O/U to be 11.5. The one word to describe the 49ers season is injuries. For most of the season, the 2023 offensive player of the year Christian McCaffrey was out; Brandon Aiyuk tore his ACL in Week 7, and the team had many other collections of injuries throughout the year. The Niners limped through the first half of the year with a 5-5 record, then only won once in their remaining games. QB Brock Purdy, who was possibly looking for a massive contract after this season, had a down year and his future in San Fran looms large. The main reason they regressed from last year is their defense, which was third-best in 2023 and plummeted to fourth-worst in 2024.